Global Warming Set To Break 1.5°C Limit By 2027

Facts

• According to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization, there is a 66% chance that the world will breach the 1.5°C global warming limit before 2027 and, research suggests, with increasing frequency in the years afterwards.¹
• The El Niño pattern developing toward the end of this year, along with an increase in human-caused emissions, are likely to fuel the rise in global temperatures, which scientists predict will be temporary.²
• The report, titled Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, warns that there is a 98% chance at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record.³
• A previous report published in March by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that the world would bypass the critical 1.5°C warming limit during "the first half of the 2030s."⁴
• Scientists believe increased greenhouse gas emissions have steadily increased global warming to more than 1°C since the 19th century, with temperatures rising by about 0.2°C per decade.³
• At the current rate, the IPCC warns that temperatures could exceed 2°C by the end of the century, posing serious threats to human and animal populations.⁵

Sources: ¹Bloomberg Law, ²BBC News, ³Global Citizen, ⁴New York Times, and ⁵Evening Standard.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Washington Post. While we are likely to breach the 1.5°C warming limit, it would be dangerous to encourage public fear or despair over such a development, as one or even a few years over 1.5°C would not be the end of the world. Painting it as such would make it politically impossible to combat the real climate threat; prolonged periods of more than 1.5°C, or worse, permanency at those temperatures. There's no need to panic, as doomsayers have unsuccessfully predicted climate disasters for decades.
• Narrative B, as provided by Guardian. Humans have failed our planet and are continuing to fail our future generations. The truth is that we either stop our greenhouse gas emissions or we let the planet disintegrate. We are facing a climate emergency and, if we choose to continue on this path, it is inevitable that humankind will be forced to adjust to a new, catastrophic form of normality.

Predictions