Metaculus

A collection of 3195 posts

Rainbow Bridge Crash Victims Identified as Grand Island Couple

Niagara Falls Police have identified the two victims who died in the Rainbow Bridge crash at the US-Canada border on Wednesday as Grand Island couple Kurt and Monica Villani, both 53....

Social issues

House Speaker Johnson Meets With Trump After Endorsement

Republican US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson of Louisiana on Monday made his first visit as speaker to the Mar-a-Lago estate to meet with former Pres. Donald Trump....

Politics

Report: China Closing Mosques in Northern Regions

According to a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report released Wednesday, the Chinese government is closing mosques in the Muslim-majority northern Ningxia region as well as Gansu province as part of an official process known as 'consolidation.'...

Social issues

Israel and Hamas Confirm Temporary Ceasefire in Breakthrough Hostage Deal

After the Israeli war cabinet voted in favor of a Qatari-mediated hostage deal with Hamas early on Wednesday, a four-day ceasefire is expected to be implemented Thursday. The deal reportedly includes the exchange of 50 Israeli and duel-national hostages — women and children — held in Gaza for...

World

South Africa: Lawmakers Vote to Suspend Israel Ties, Close Embassy

South Africa's Parliament voted 248 to 91 on Tuesday to call for the closure of the Israeli embassy in Pretoria and the suspension of all diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv until a lasting cease-fire in the war in Gaza is reached, amid mounting tensions in Israeli-South African relations....

World

Georgia Judge Refuses to Revoke Trump Co-Defendant's Bond

Fulton County, Georgia Superior Judge Scott McAfee on Tuesday rejected Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis' request to reject the bond of Harrison Floyd over social media posts he made about witnesses in his case....

Crime & justice

Kremlin Suggests 'Colossal' Ukrainian Losses in Russian-Occupied Territory

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Ukrainian marines and special forces have suffered 'colossal' losses after successfully crossing the east bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region. This comes as the UK Defense Ministry said both sides have been fighting in severa...

Military

Philippines Calls for Separate Code of Conduct With Vietnam, Malaysia

Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Monday that his country has approached other ASEAN members with whom they have territorial disputes, namely Malaysia and Vietnam, to formulate a separate code of conduct in the South China Sea, amid mounting tensions with the PRC....

World

UK COVID Inquiry: Sunak Reportedly Said to 'Let People Die'

According to the diary of former chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, former chief of staff Dominic Cummings had heard then-Chancellor and current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak say it was acceptable for the UK government to just 'let people die' during the pandemic....

Politics

SEC Sues Kraken for Running Unregistered Crypto Exchange

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued Kraken crypto exchange for allegedly operating as a securities exchange without registering with the regulator....

Money

Report: US House Could Vote on Biden Impeachment Inquiry by January

Politico reported Tuesday that US House Republicans could vote on whether to impeach President Joe Biden as early as January. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told the outlet that his party could finish interviewing at least 15 witnesses.

Politics

Four Wounded in Ohio Walmart Shooting

Four people were wounded during a shooting in a Walmart in Beavercreek, Ohio on Monday night. The victims were taken to local hospitals, with three in critical condition and one suffering non-life-threatening injuries....

Crime & justice

US Appeals Court Makes Major Modification to Voting Rights Act

The US Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit on Monday voted 2-1 to determine that only the US Attorney General can sue under a key section of the Voting Rights Act, meaning private groups are barred from taking legal action related to Section 2 of the law....

Politics

Papua New Guinea Orders Evacuations After Volcano Eruption

On Monday, Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) Mount Ulawun volcano began spewing smoke and debris into the air — prompting residential evacuations and the cancellation of air travel....

Environment & Energy

Appeals Court Hears Arguments Over Trump Gag Order

A panel of three judges from the federal appeals court in Washington, DC heard arguments Monday regarding the gag order placed on former Pres. Donald Trump, limiting what he can say about the 2020 election-related case brought against him by special counsel Jack Smith....

Crime & justice

Israel Set to Approve Hostage Release Deal With Hamas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 38-minister cabinet gathered on Tuesday for a detailed debate and vote on a deal that would see the release of around 50 hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Despite opposition from the Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit parties, the government ha...

World

BRICS: PRC Supports Expansion; Argentina Likely to Withdraw Application

A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry reiterated Beijing's support for the expansion of the BRICS ('Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa') grouping of developing nations on Monday, stating a news briefing that any country interested in becoming a member will be welcomed....

World

Philippines, US Launch Joint Patrols

The Philippines and the US launched joint military patrols near Taiwan on Tuesday as part of a three-day exercise that analysts say is likely to increase tensions with China....

Military

Deadly Flooding Strikes the Dominican Republic

In the last 48 hours, torrential storms have caused flooding, destroyed homes, and damaged infrastructure in the Dominican Republic. President Luis Abinader called the weather the 'largest rainfall event ever' in the history of the nation....

Weather

Musk Sues Media Matters Over Hate-Adjacent Ads on X

Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter) sued Media Matters for America (MMFA) on Monday, after the liberal advocacy group claimed that X had displayed ads for major corporations next to neo-Nazi and white nationalist content....

Media

Sunak: UK to Invest in Climate-Resilient Crops

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, speaking at the Global Food Security Summit in London on Monday, announced that the UK will set up a new science initiative to produce climate-resilient crops....

Environment & Energy

Ukraine Sacks Two Cyber Defense Officials in Corruption Probe

Amid a probe into corruption and embezzlement, two senior cyber defense officials were sacked from their posts, a Ukrainian government official confirmed on Monday....

Politics

Turkish Cargo Ship with 12 Crew Sinks in Black Sea

A Turkish cargo ship with 12 crew on board reportedly sank off Turkey's Black Sea coast during a storm on Sunday....

Social issues

Australia PM Calls Chinese Navy Incident that Injured Diver 'Dangerous'

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese criticized China for acting dangerously and damaging ties after an incident in international waters off Japan on Tuesday between a Chinese warship and an Australian navy vessel....

Military

Biden Threatens Visa Sanctions for 'Extremists' who Attack Palestinians

US President Joe Biden has ordered the preparation of visa bans and further sanctions against Israeli individuals who attack and displace Palestinians in the West Bank, according to a reports of an internal White House document....

Politics