US Midterms: Biden Warns of Risk to Democracy, Trump Hints at Another Run

Only a day before Americans head to the polls for the midterm elections, Pres. Biden warned on Monday that a GOP victory could harm democracy, and former Pres. Trump suggested that he might declare another presidential run by next week.

US Midterms: Biden Warns of Risk to Democracy, Trump Hints at Another Run
Image credit: Saul Loeb/AFP [via France 24]

Facts

  • Only a day before Americans head to the polls for the midterm elections, Pres. Biden warned on Monday that a GOP victory could harm democracy, and former Pres. Trump suggested that he might declare another presidential run by next week.
  • Speaking at a rally in Ohio, Trump said that “we want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow,” but he added that he would make a "very big announcement" on Nov. 15, a week after the vote.
  • Biden said Monday night in Maryland that "the power's in your hands," and "we know in our bones that our democracy is at risk and we know that this is your moment to defend it."
  • Polling generally suggests that Republicans are showing momentum to potentially take the House, but the Senate is still a toss-up between the main political parties.
  • Democrats have generally focused on access to abortion and the alleged threat that Republicans pose to American democracy, whereas Republicans have focused on the economy and crime to sway voters.
  • If the Democrats lose control of the House or the Senate, it would likely pose a setback for Biden's legislative agenda and could mean gridlock for the legislative and executive branches.

Sources: Reuters, FT, France24, Afr, Al Jazeera, and Guardian.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by BreitBart. With Republicans showing gains in the polls nationwide, Democrats have been reduced to sending the deeply unpopular Biden to the campaign trail. Even in supposedly safe blue areas, the Democratic face a potential "red wave" to his party's woke social policies and economic agenda. This referendum on Biden's presidency will reflect a record of failure.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by CNN. In elections with so many too-close-to-call races, Biden has focused strategically on retaining and sparking enthusiasm in typically Democrat-supporting districts. Democratic campaigning has also highlighted those GOP election deniers who continue to make baseless claims about the 2020 presidential results. Despite what the poll numbers suggest, Democrats have made a strong push in the final hour.

Predictions

Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?
The aggregate of Metaculus community forecasters was on Nov 08, 2022.